for me. for "closing bell" tonight, thank you so much for being with me. i hope you'll follow me on twitter. stay with cnbc because "fast money" begins right now. have a great night, everybody. i'll see you tomorrow. countdown to the election. >> everybody is talking about what is going to happen tomorrow. somebody is going to be surprised. many of the traders here are hoping whoever wins, it is not close. >> but right now the race looks pretty close, and the job certainly won't be easy. >> whoever wins faces a daunting four years and inherits a bitter chalice. you're addicted to debt type consumption, eventually you hit a greek type wall. >> what should you be focused on right now and how can you trade it? >> the gas and oil that with we have found is in the first inning. it's like the internet in 1990. we're in the first inning of a great american century. unless we get wrecked. >> your money, your vote.

fresh off the trading floor, this is "fast money." >> live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. it is almost here. we are now just hours away from americans heading to the polls. the presidential campaigns entering the home stretch. cnbc's john harwood has made it down to the nasdaq. he's got the latest from camp obama as well as camp romney. john? >> melissa, this thing is going down to the wire. the candidates have been crisscrossing the swing states for the last 24 hours -- wisconsin, florida, virginia, ohio, all the places that matter. let's take a look first at the national polls. our last poll shows 48% for obama, 47% for mitt romney. the president inching ahead. the same thing has happened in some other national polls. more importantly for the president, look at the swing state numbers. start with the state of virginia, 13 electoral votes. the president's got a one-point lead, 48-47.

in florida, with 29 electoral votes, a state mitt romney absolutely has to have, president obama leads by two points-47. and in ohio, the ultimate hinge point in this election, another state that mitt romney absolutely believes that he needs to have to get to 270 electoral votes. he is down 6, 51-45. now, of course, all of these things depend on how you define likely voters. the romney campaign says the polls are not capturing republican enthusiasm. the proof is going to come tomorrow night. >> in your view, john, what are the odds that we will have a decisive winner come wednesday morning? >> i think the odds are very strong. if you look at the polls, they show a consistent lead for the president. unless we get shocked by what is happening in the actual turnout in those battleground state, it looks like a significant number of the battlegrounds are going to tilt obama's way. these that's how it looks at this moment there is just a few moments before i came on air. a new "washington post"/abc poll

came without a three-point obama lead. if that's the case and the swing states fall in the same direction mostly, mitt romney needs most of the swing states to win, we could have a decision before we get too deep into the wee hours of wednesday morning. >> let's hope for that. john, thank you so much that. and let's trade this thing historically. a democratic president has been better for stocks with 74% versus a 47% average return under republicans. but let's dig deeper here. which sectors and stocks would benefit under each candidate? cnbc has created proprietary indices of stocks that could actually gain under an obama or a romney presidency. president obama's basket consists of home builders, health care facilities and auto stocks while romney ace portfolio has coal, oil, and gas and defense and managed care names. what is the trade here, if there is one, guy? >> a lot of the obvious ones we talked about on this show and on our network today. i'll go one sector we have talked about a few months ago

that has done pretty well on a stealth move higher. look at some of these defense stocks which i think regardless of who wins you think they'll do really well. i think obviously they'll spike more with the romney victory, although i think they'll do well under a obama reelection as well. lockheed martin has had a great run. a four or five-year run they're side way, but since spring they've done really well. >> tim? >> what is challenging about doing this, though, a lot of the obama stocks are things that have a lot of price baked into them. 10 when you look at a lot of the hospitals or if you look at places where people have really fallen in line and had a pretty good run, it almost says i want to be contrarian anyway, but if i look at what is going on with romney, i definitely like the transportation sector. i like csx. i like it from a perspective of where we are on the charts, and valuations that are relatively undemanding. this is the second derivative of the coal trade, the second derivative of the oil and gas. but to be clear, to me part of

this is we are playing stocks in obama's case that i think is kind of a recurrence of a rally that is already a little long in the tooth. and this is why i would be more inclined because i'm already positioned in resource stocks anyway because of what i see going on around the world. >> one perhaps better suited for the options market, dan. >> well, here is the thing, right. the bank stocks are one of the areas where regulation could go either way, depending on who wins. to me what i think is very interesting, to tim's point, it's tough to trade some these things. a a lot of the news is in this. some of the stocks, some of the sectors have taken off since romney had the great showing in the denver debate over a month ago that point i think the bank stocks could really set up for some failure if we do have an obama victory here. because this is one where you have him for four more years, this is a sector that has pretty much lined up against the president here. so to me, i actually think you could see some good volatility. volatility has picked up of late in a lot of the bank stocks. but just in a totally contrarian way, in a stock like bank of

america there has been tons of call buying just this week. in november all the way out to january. and that ten line. there has been a lot a lot of buying there. >> karen? >> i've got to take the other side of that. i think the bank stocks actually will do well in either event. i think that for a bank of america, for example, it's the housing recovery. >> sure. >> that will be the most important factor there. so i would be long, a and i am long bank of america for either outcome. >> that was also the case with wells fargo. i mean this is one of the names, this is a big romney name, right? we saw what happened to that since they reported their 2 edq. it's predicated on whether we are recovering as an economy. a the end of the day short-term volatility around some of these things. and there is plenty of tradeable opportunities. >> scott nations, what is your election play? >> i think caterpillar, at least if mr. obama is elected. he wants to spend money on the infrastructure, and caterpillar has actually done pretty well over the past month, given that the market, the broader market has not done particularly well, and that b-to-b, at least as far

as asia is concerned isn't doing particularly well. if you want to spend money and create jobs, then taking the politics out of it, probably the way to do it is infrastructure. and god knows the northeast is going to need plenty of infrastructure spending over the next couple of years. so i think caterpillar does really well if mr. obama is reelected, for more on the question of which candidate will be better for the markets, let's bring in the chief economist at cibc world markets. welcome, avery, to the show. and the conventional thinking is that obama is better for bonds, romney better for stocks. do you agree? >> i think that's the one-day knee-jerk reaction. but i think knee-jerk reactions can be wrong. you know, attend of the day, what equities really need is growth. that's what one of your guests mentioned, and i firmly agree with that. and i think there are a number of chips on obama's side that actually could mean faster growth than if romney wins. you have obama certainly behind bernanke on a monetary policy.

you have some risks under romney. he would appoint a more cautious central bank governor to come in 2014. you also have i think a little more recognition on the obama side that while spending does need to be reined in over the coming decade, that you want to do it carefully enough that you don't walk into what the europeans found, which is too deep a tightening for the economy to bear. and remember that on the republican side, you have a number of very strong small government proponents within the republican party who didn't think that government spending created any jobs and presumably believe that deep cuts won't cost any jobs. >> avery, you mentioned ben bernanke and the policies that an obama presidency would keep in place because it would assure that ben bernanke is still the fed chairman. and that presumes, though, that the policy of keeping interest rates so low is in fact encouraging of an economy that is growing. i mean, do you think it does have that sort of impact where you can say that particular plank of the obama presidency

will make sure that the environment is good for growth? >> look, i don't believe that qe3 is some page bullet here. after all, interest rates are already pretty low, and you're not really stimulating much additional bank lending through it. but nevertheless, the alternative, for example, if i look at a potential romney appointee, someone for example like john taylor from stanford, he has been advocating moving off the zero interest rate policy earlier. and i think that would be a mistake. you have a housing sector that is now showing some signs of life. and i think those will be critical to getting the economy moving again. and we need to maintain those very low interest rates i think at least through 2014 and early 2014 is of course when the reappointment of bernanke or someone like bernanke would be a decision facing whoever is president. >> avery, it's tim. so it sounds like there you almost think quasi punch bowl because he can't be too aggressive in going after the deficit right here, or a glen hobbard or maybe somebody who

could be a middle ground. the dollar seems to be rallying into this event. it rallying because of europe? because this morning if i looked at the conflicting signals, i said right, the bond market is lining up for an obama victory, and the dollar is lining up for a romney victory. and i think the dollar is a greater force here to be honest with you. and i'm curious how you line up on that. >> i think the dollar has been a confusing trade lately, and it's making a tough time to trade the dollar. we've had, for example, people expecting that qe would lead to a big crash in the u.s. dollar. it didn't really do that. i think part of what we're seeing in the u.s. dollar is the question mark still about europe now. you have the greek situation and the bunt coming up for a vote there, some uncertainty as to where that's going to go. so that may be weighing a bitton euro helping the dollar. i think the dollar is much more now in play with what is going on in the rest of the world, rather than a u.s. story per se. >> avery, good to talk to you. avery shenfeld.

be sure to keep it locked into cnbc for all your election day coverage tomorrow. we kick it off at 5:00 p.m. apple posting better than expected sales of the ipad mini. our guy adami gave a little trade school on when to buy apple stock. take a listen. >> well, i would use sort of 610 as a pivot. 610 i think a close above 610, it breaks out again towards the upside. >> all right. the stock popped today, closed above the 575 level. what do you do now? >> the low on friday was 575.75. it doesn't really matter what you think of the company, although i'm sure people will disagree with that. the levels matter. against 575, you have a very well defined stock and placed on the downside. the risk rewards at 585, wherever we close too is extraordinarily good for a long-side trade. i will mention dan had this spot-on and tim on september 7th when apple was 680ish was also

very cautious on the stock. i think we have done a decent job navigating i think in the first time in a long time it sets up pretty well. >> you've been kaurning for a while, did the ipad numbers that come out over the weekend, does it convince you to think twice about that? >> 3 million, i think there are a lot of people pretty happy with it with a product is pretty defensive. and it's a cannibalizing of their existing products. this is a company that just refreshed their ipods, their iphone, their ipads. to me at the end of the day, three million ipads in one weekend, that's pretty great. but i think you have to look out six months and see what is it taking it from. >> it's interesting you're saying an offensive product, the ipad mini when this is not the first time apple has come out with a product second to the market or third to the market. the music world, it comes out with the ipod long after the sony walkman and other devices throughout. but it reinvented. >> that was ten years ago. it's a much more saturated market now.

here is a company that's valuation, i know a lot of people on the desk think it's cheap, is predicated on 40% growth margins or higher. this is not likely to hold going forward, especially as you think about this company is expected to have almost $200 billion in revenues. it's the law of large numbers is going to take hold at some point. but i do believe with guy here. i think at some point between 550 and a little lower, i think it's going to be a great opportunity. i think you're going have a run to 600 one more time. >> all right. it is a company that is helping pump relief into the areas hit hardest by superstorm sandy. coming up, we'll talk to the ceo of xylem about the business and its efforts in the wake of the storm. so stay with us. ♪

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welcome back to "fast money." >> bertha coombs. zillow reporting earnings that met expectations, 7 cents on the bottom line. the revenues are in line. but its outlook coming up short. it now says it sees revenues for the next quarter of 30 to 31 million. the estimate was for 32.5 million. as you can see there, the shares tumbling after hours. melissa? >> thank you very much, bertha coombs. and karen, an strong juxtaposition when you look at the decline in shares of zillow after hours and realogy. it just recently ipo'd. >> yes. it ipo'd and came at 33 was the first trade, i think of about there. and we still like it here. but i don't know if there is any read through, if it's a market share thing or more of an industry thing. >> let's move on here. cleanup continues on wall street

and along the northeast coast, pumping water from buildings, rails and tunnels a top priority in new york's financial district and beyond. joining me is xylem's ceo gretchen mcclain. xylem is one of the big companies focusing on dewatering infrastructure in areas hit by sandy. gretchen, great to have you with us. >> thank you for having me. >> there is a lot of pumping going on in lower manhattan. i see it every single day. i don't know where the water goes from the holes it is coming out of, but it's going out of the places it doesn't belong. in how many pumps have you got downtown, and how long do you expect this effort to last? >> we actually spent a lot of time prepositioning pumps in place well before the storm got here. but we have over 200 pumps already out deployed, another 100 on their way, working with customers, trying to move the water as quick as we can so people can get back up and rung. >> what is your fastest pumps? i read something like 16,500 gallons a minute. >> this that is correct. >> wow. >> think of that. take a backyard pool. you could probably fill or unfill it in about two minutes.

so it's a significant amount of water, moving it very quickly. >> a couple of questions. so these pumps that you're bringing in, are these rented? these are purchased? what is the transaction? >> in a sways like that, typically it's rental. you rent them for a period of time. you'll have some that will actually be take the goldman sachs building, pulling out of the water of that. it will be a couple of weeks. you'll have others that will be deployed here for months at a time because they're actually having to large a amount of water while they're repositioning something, and ultimately bringing backwater where they need to. so it can be six months. it can be a couple of days. it really depends on the situation. other cases in these pumps we actually sell them and they're permanent installations. but the rental is really caused around here circumstances there any after market business? there is the up-front business, but then the after market business or the servicing business has even better margins? >> absolutely. the a after market, you bring it, you're renting. but you're going see at lot of stuff going through that. the good thing about our

equipment, it's nonclog. but ultimately you'll have to replace, repair, bring more services to it. and as we move this water away, a lot of pumps that are used to move water in a building or pulling the waste water away have needed repair and replacement. so over the next several months, the next six months, you'll see an after market repair because of the damage that it has caused. >> coming off reporting earnings earlier this month. a few guys out there said cautious on the company given the headwinds they see or you see in europe. you address that? >> sure. about 37% of our revenue is in europe. but we have large install base in europe for. same thing. you have an aged infrastructure. the after market has to be repaired. we're all paying terrorists to get our water and waste rather removed. it's an infrastructure that has to be invested in. those issues are not going away. >> europe is a headwind, but municipal budgets are under pressure, and that's also listed as a headwind. is the sandy lift going to be enough to offset next quarter? >> sandy alone will not.

sandy clearly is an opportunity for us to use our equipment, our expertise and our talent just to be able to come back and help people get back up and running again. but ultimately won't offset all that but it does give us opportunity to be able to work with our customers, build that reputation and trust and help them grow their companies later. >> so you really need to see municipal budgets improve and you need to see europe improve in order for the main part of your business to get on the right track? >> well, you've got emerging markets. emerging markets are growing substantially. so a big focus of our attention is in the emerging market as well as even with public utilities, bringing their operating costs down, bringing energy-efficient solutions allow them to bring their cost downs so they can invest in the other areas. so we're focused obviously in how we can help them operate in a more efficient way. so it's not just moving water. it's treating and it's testing, and we all know the quality of water has been a key opportunity for us. >> gretchen, thank you so much for coming by. we appreciate it. >> thank you very much. >> i hope you come back to "fast money" some time. gretchen mcclain of xylem.

the cash flow is very impressive. one analyst estimates $2 a share by 2013. >> it is. i love the pump business. what i didn't get to ask her, which i would be curious, how many people who didn't think they needed a pump now think you know what? just as a matter -- >> it's like generators. >> exactly. there same thing. >> who was truly proactive on this in terms of municipalities and businesses. i'm sure in new york there were people that were way ahead of the curve. in this whole space, there are a lot of names that have rallied that i don't think should have rallied. gretchen talked about the emerging markets, some of the best trades in new york, this is a big water treatment, and infrastructure play that caught a big bounce and i would be a sell thoefr bounce. this is a structural long-term story, but so many of the stories are not placed and you can take advantage of the pop because they're not all created equal. >> eamon javers takes a look at what is coming up next. >> hi, melissa. this is the grand total price tag for this campaign this year, $1.7 billion. it is a stupendous number

politically. when we come back, i'll tell you how we got to this record shattering amount in a presidential campaign. oh, hey mike. what are you up to?

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we can finally count down to the election in terms of hours instead of days. and one big topic this election cycle has been the huge sums of money spent on each party's campaign. eamon javers back at headquarters to break down all the numbers. eamon? >> hi, melissa. the battle for a four-year stay at the white house has an enormous price tag. so far the candidates' campaigns have spent more than $1.7 billion just since january of last year. now break it down for each side. starting with the obama campaign, the obama campaign alone on this sideburned through over $553 million. another $263 million came from the democratic national committee. and the top three superpacs on the obama side dumped in another $58 million. that's all according to the center for responsive politics. that's up more than $4 million just since last month. now team obama comes in with more than $874 million in

spending. now walk with me over to the channeler's side. and you look at the romney campaign. they spent more than $360 million. the republican national committee piled on another $284 million. and the top three romney superpacs added a whopping $200 million. according to the center for responsive politics. that's up about $43 million from last month. total spent more than $844 million on the romney side. team obama is outspending the romney camp by about $30 million. but as we get closer to election night, which is tomorrow, that spending gap has been closing. keep in mind these numbers only take us through october 17th. we won't know the total campaign spending until the candidates submit their final reports in december, melissa. >> already they are staggering amounts. eamon, thanks for that. >> you bet. >> time for pops and drops and movers you might have missed. time warner cable down 6%. tim? >> yeah, the video on demand is really taking a bite out of

their business. the stock is also up almost 50% year to date also missed on sales. they suffered big. >> bank of america, a drop. moved 1%. dan? >> as my friend karen over here said earlier in her smackdown, here is a company that is supposed to benefit from a broad economic recovery, but specifically levered to the housing market. the stock was down just little bit. but it's 3% from the 52-week highs. this is a name that a lot of traders could use to chase for performance. they can buy a lot of the calls that we talked about to lever up. >> pop here for arrowpostal. >> after today's move, i wouldn't chase it. >> rally down a proposed offering. if you look since early september, every rally of this magnitude has a selling opportunity. i think it's going to be another one tomorrow. >> southern company, down 2%. scott nations? >> earnings missed by 2 cents and revenues were light as well. the stock closed at $44.62.

44 has been the critical level going back for 12 months. >> and a drop for drinking. if you're in south carolina or kentucky tomorrow, you will not be able to toast the presidential victory or drink away your sorrows. that's because a law dating back to prohibition times forbids the sale of alcohol on election day. the penalty for breaking the law is sobering as well. a $200 fine and up to 60 days in jail. >> why do we still have prohibition laws? it's the most absurd thing in the world. >> i don't know. >> sunday brunch until noon? >> sunday brunch on tuesday? minor detail. pop here for toyota, up 4%. tim? >> raise the forecast. the guys are beating what people had zero expectation. the prius is kicking it. it's going to look a lot cooler going forward. important. >> pop, up 3%, dan. in the last week we've had better chan expected. the stock is up 100%. it's one of those winners that people are going to hold on to the very end.

>> drop for walgreen, down 2%. karen? >> some disappointing same-store sales. blame it on sandy. express groups missed that will be interesting to see how it affects walgreen tomorrow. >> the stock has been a monster. they filed a mix shelf. i don't think that's going to matter. it might trade 66 in a couple months. it's at least going to 50. >> speaking of monster, monster beverage, up 2%. scott? >> they got a love letter in the media, which pointed out they own a third of the impressive and growing energy drink market. and the last time we talked about this stock, it was because they were being sued, a really unfortunate situation. i think the market likes that we haven't seen a pile-on by other plaintiffs. and finally, a pop for pigskin politics. here is a positive sign for the romney campaign, according to the redskins koul rule. if the washington redskins win their last home game before a race, the incumbent party will win the presidency. on sunday, as you know, the redskins lost to the carolina

panthers at home. but if you're not a firm believer in pigskin politics, consider this. the redskins rule has been right in 17 of the last 18 elections. >> name one washington redskin. you can't even go -- what sport do they play? >> football. that i know. >> by the way, folks, i know we're in a little music. a very happy birthday. you're not 29 every day. happy birthday. >> coming up next, find out what tomorrow's election could mean for the housing market, your mortgage, and one of america's most challenged cities. we're heading to the battleground state of michigan with the boss at quicken loans, right after this. looking for a better place to put your cash? here's one you may not have thought of -- fidelity. now you don't have to go to a bank to get the things you want from a bank, like no-fee atms, all over the world. free checkwriting and mobile deposits. now depositing a check is as easy as taking a picture. free online bill payments.

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♪ hands up, they're playing my song, you know i'm going to be okay ♪ >> i love that. what is that? >> i like that song. >> what is that? >> party in the usa. >> back to "fast money." we're back at the nasdaq market site. another earnings mover. let's check with bertha coombs at hq. >> people thought that the express scripps earnings would be okay because they wouldn't give guidance for 2013 until next quarter. they kind of did.

they topped on their third quarter dollar to 27 billion in revenues. they rayed the end of guidance, be now the company is warning for 2013 without giving specific numbers, saying the loss of united health customers and the slowdown in the economy will be a drag. the street's estimate they say for 2013, which is about 449 per share they say is too aggressive. >> all right, thank you, bertha. karen, what is your initial take on this and what the impact is on cvs? >> if they talk about the economy slowing down, that's not goods for cvs either. but if, you know, there is only a few players in this business. so maybe they're losing some share. they have had some wins go to cvs. i like cvs better, but i'm not sure yet what to make of this. i'm surprised at how much the stock is moving. >> you go back to early 2010, and then early 2011, and the move we're seeing now, we've seen this exact same move, the

magnitude obviously from different levels. it's been a tremendous stock now for the last three years. this should bottom out around 51 1/2, 52, probably going to have a monster volume day tomorrow. it's not going to be an easy trade to get into, but i think the risk reward over the next couple days on the long side in this is going to be pretty interesting. >> all right. well, president obama has pushed efforts to help troubled borrowers refinance while opponent mitt romney has said that the housing market needs to hit bottom without government intervention. what do industry lead thirst is best for housing and the mortgage market? let's bring in bill emerson, the ceo of quicken loans. bill joins us tonight from detroit. bill, good to see you. >> how are you, melissa? it's good to be here. >> good, good, thanks, bill. in terms of mortgage rates, for consumers out there who are taking a look at refinancing or getting a new loan, if ben bernanke is telling us that rates will remain low through 2015, is there a real risk in your view that they won't? >> well, i think there is always a risk that things will move and shift and change. you know, i think with what the fed is trying to do is keep

interest rates low. and barring any inflation or, you know, a potential good jobs report that. >> probably will stay low. what i do know, though, is when rates do decide to go up. that will go up, they will go up quickly, and there never any indication that that is going to happen. so i think if you're in the market right now to refinance or purchase, when you think about rates and you think about affordability, it's probably the best time ever to do it. >> in terms of the various policies of the candidates, bill, what do you think will encourage the biggest and strongest impact on the housing market to the upside? >> well, i mean, if the president gets reelected, i think we know what we're going to see. we've seen a lot of government involvement, and i think that's necessarily going to change. you know, if governor romney is elected, he has talked about getting more private capital back into the marketplace and letting the free market take hold. so, you know, either one of those situations has its own outcomes. we've seen what has happened so far with harp and how that refinancing process has helped

people. but i also know when the governor -- if the governor wins and he gets in, there he is going to have to digest exactly what is happening in the marketplace. i don't think you're going to see necessarily anything happen in a very, very short time frame. >> it's karen. let me ask you. how much improvement have you seen in your business over the last four months? and are you taking share from someone else, or is the pie just growing? >> supply is growing a little bit when you start looking at the mortgage association bankers market, predicted to be a $1.4 trillion this year. we've been taking share. our business model being centralized allows us to access all 50 states. the fact that we're a j.d. power award winner for client service matters to clients that we're talking to. so as a result of that and our platform, we've actually been gaining share. >> all right. we're going to leave it there, bill. thanks for your time. bill emerson, ceo of quicken loans. let's stick with housing here. scott nations, you saw a big bet being made today in hovnanian.

>> has been a double top since the beginning of 2011. and it's always tough. they get bullish on a name that has had a big run. somebody did that by buying calls. it makes all the sense in the world because you define your risk. we saw a buyer of 10,000 of the may 4.5 calls. they paid 95 cents, quite a bit for a cheap stock. but that means they think the stock is going to be above $5.40 which is their break even. and they think it's going to be there before may expiration. >> thanks for that, scott. and of course more "options action" friday at 5:00 eastern time. in terms of the housing trade, we've seen a lot of run on the home builders more recently the component makers, on this notion that there is a hurricane sandy, a trade element to it. >> and obviously i think we talk last week how these are typically one-off events. but home depot, we keep coming back. you should keep coming back to because the stock has been an absolute monster. i think it's going to be.

the stock does everything right technically. it dips for you. you get an opportunity to buy it. i think you're in the midst of seeing the next leg up probably to 65 in this name. to me, the housing market the way it's structured right now, benign tape, bad tape, good tape, hd works. >> we've been going more towards the materials side. this to me is one of the great stories. first of all, they have major share of the u.s. cement market. they also are an improving balance sheet story for one that is in disarray. this is a transformational story meets the u.s. housing market. cemex has more to go. >> in terms of who wins, it's still a good play. does that mean either candidate romney or obama would be equally good or equally bad for the housing market? >> i just think the housing market's rebound is bigger than either administration. i believe we're going to see that rebound regardless who is in office. okay. coming up next, we're hours, hours away from election day in

america. we here at "fast money" continue to give you the best way to play either outcome. coming up next, the outlook for the treasury trade. and $1 trillion worth of investment advice with black rock's rick reader. that's coming up right after this. [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. you get knock-your-socks-off tools, simple one-click orders, real-time paper trading to hone your skills, plus anytime you need it support. ♪ stocks, options, futures, and forex. get your trading on track. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. trade commission free for 60 days, plus get up to $600 when you open an account.

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weight watchers gaining after hours in a good way. third quarter earnings blew past estimates of $1.20 a share compared to $1.05. they saw a slowdown in meetings in the u.s. and uk, but that was offset. they lowered their fiscal 2012 guidance to $4 to $4.10 a share. they said they're going to pull forward some investment from the first quarter of 2013. also, they see an impact of two to three cents a share from sandy. i can imagine they're going to have a lot more people. if folks are like me, i ate a lot during that storm. >> i heard the same thing, bertha, in terms of wanting comfort food during uncertain times. >> that's what you just said. no? oh, you mean in general. >> in general i heard that people were craving things like mac and cheese and meatloaf.

>> mean. >> i'm mean? >> you own wtw. >> we do. i like the franchise. the last quarter before this one was terrible. the stock rallied all the way back. you know, i hear that jessica simpson campaign is going very, very well. you might laugh at that, i know. but apparently she has lost quite a bit of weight that is a good thing. when you think about what happened to the stock during the jennifer hudson campaign, extraordinary weight loss, great for the stock. i actually think -- >> you said the jennifer hudson campaign was a trigger for you. >> i'm not a meeting guy, i'm an online guy. [ laughter ] >> at least you're making an effort, dan. >> yes. >> all right. we're just one day away from the residential election. how should you be positioning your fixed income portfolio ahead of these results? joining us now with your treasury trade is rick rieder, chief investment officer of fundamental fixed income at black rock. rick, always good to see you. >> good to see you. >> i'm going to ask about the conventional wisdom.

obama better for bonds, romney better for stocks. would you agree that? >> the big discussion in the markets is going to be what does romney do around this fed and is bernanke going to be around for a period longer you. could see if there is a romney presidency you could certainly see rates start to drift up. and i think markets now today are starting to react to probably more obama. >> if we do hear that romney is the winner ultimately tuesday night, wednesday morning, whenever that may be, will you actually think that he will actually fire bernanke and there will be a change in policy? >> i think bernanke's got another year to run through. i also think it's going to be pretty hard. part of the policy is going to be to cut spending, and you think about it, we're going to go through a period of austerity. if that's right, it's hard to raise rates simultaneous to that. i do think over time you'll see bernanke replaced. but i don't think the reaction in that interim is that dramatic. >> if you follow that scenario through, if romney were to win

and austerity was his path, you would think that would be bullish for bonds. >> it's all within the context of i think rates are going to stay low for a long time. but if you think about, you have a president that is going to be more pro-growth you have a president that is going to change the fed. i do think the markets -- we're talking about a ten-year that is under 170. so do you see markets react and see some backup as a result of it? i think so. it's all within the context we're going to be in low rates for a long time. >> rick, at the risk of killing earnings here, let's go across the pond and avoid elections for a minute and talk about european debt. i know you're relatively bullish on the sovereign story there. i think italy will where this is a very wealthy country, a country that can pay and has the political will. has it gone too far? i think you definitely buy for the long haul. >> we're comfortable with italy. you talk about a country that has a lot of flexibility. one of the things that people don't factor in is their leverage on the entire country is not that high. in the government it is. they have loot of flexibility. you also have a dynamic that you

think about one of the nice things about sovereign debt is as it starts to stabilize and improve, it actually brings in more buyers. some other markets today, levels are getting pretty tight. so you think about you're going to see sellers come into places like high yield where in places like italy you'll see central banks buying again will cause improvement. >> so are you going to see -- i don't want to say a rotation, but a shift in appetite across various european countries as things seem to get more stable in some and the risk gets transferred to others? >> one of the things we believe in is you will get a convergence. one of the things that was real around the eurozone summit was this realization that distorted interest rates, particularly in places like germany, places like finland, which is actually not good for the eurozone. and if you had convergence, even if it meant an increase in rate, it's good for growth and good for stability. >> and we got to ask you about the impact of hurricane sandy on municipal bonds. is there one that is long-lasting? >> we don't think it's going to in. it's going to increase borrowing

for sure. we think you're going have a growth dynamic that is going to be near-term negative, longer term probably moderately positive. will it affect the municipal market? probably not. tax policy could certainly be reflective in muni spreads. but i think hurricane sandy probably not a big deal. >> has it been a tax policy reflected in muni spreads? >> at this point not really. market trades -- market trades incredibly well. the yield for neil is so profound in the environment today that not that big an impact. could you see some impact if there is a romney victory? moderately. we think longer term the bid for munies continues. >> good to see you. tax policy impact not just on munies, but also on stocks and specificallypayers out there. karen, are you concerned about a shift in policy or the expiration of capital gains? >> i am. i think it could happen. we may see some big dividends because of that, which would be

nice. hopefully somebody like a microsoft. i don't know if they'll do it, but they should. >> you saw -- i actually think that's a great point. when you think about it, taking that conversation over the equity world. that yield trade, the stocks that look like bonds, it's a very crowded trade. if you have any real policy shift there, i think you could see a lot of money come out of some of these very crowded like consumer staples and utilities, that sort of thing. coming up next, it is a trade of the day that you can definitely bank on. we're going to lift the curtain and bring you the big reveal right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." we are live at the nasdaq market site. netflix announcing that it's adopting a shareholders rights plan in an attempt to protect shareholders efforts to take control of the company. this comes about a week after carl icahn disclosed a lark stake in netflix. so what can this mean for stock? and in typical carl fashion, he said the adoption of a poison pill is terrible corporate governance because it doesn't allow anything to be put up to a vote for shareholders. >> but i think ultimately this won't depend on whether this there is a pill or not. carl thinks it would be worth more if someone came in and

bought it. i don't think this prevents anybody from doing that. maybe him. but he's not looking to buy it. so i don't see at the end of the day this makes a difference. if there is someone out there and they're willing to pay up, then that puts a lot of pressure on the board. i don't think a poison pill prevents that. >> and carl's stake goes right up against that threshold, the 10% threshold of the poison pill. he has a 9.98% stake in the company. you to wonder what is the game plan. it's interesting that a person like carl icahn can go into a stock and there isn't a clear game plan there is not necessarily oh a clear oh, he is definitely going to sell it sort of attitude or this is definitely going to happen there is no clear path. >> of all his 13s, this is the most vague. but carl is laughing last. he paid whatever, 56 or whatever it is and the stock is 78. so-so far it's working out for carl. >> the trade on netflix. >> we have smoked this one and talked about it last week. in the halftime saying something

was up with netflix when it was $14 from here and this is clearly what is up. i think it has another 7 bucks to the upside, another 8, 9, 10% to the upside and then you pull the ripcord there are still people who sufficiently got them caught on the short side there where there is room for the stock to run. it is a movement yment you n waiting for, the trade of the day. scott, unveil the trade. >> i love bank of america. it's been my favorite stock for the past 12 months. but in april $10 was just a brick wall. i think the toughest thing to do as a trader is to add to a winner well. i want to do that in bank of america. earlier today i bought some call options. specifically i paid just over 50 cents for the jan $10 call options. what that means is my break even is higher than the stock has been in some time. but it's better than buying the stock. and if $10 is a problem, again, then that would be a pretty sickening ride down if i had doubled up on the stock. on the other hand, you know, my risk on these calls is just 50

cents. >> all right. there you have it, the trade of the day, bac. coming up in the next hour on "mad money," do not miss what cramer has to say before the polls open. then he has a exclusive with ceo of haines celestial. it's all top of the hour on "mad money." "fast" will be right back. the country casts its votes tomorrow. but no matter who wins washington, you're still in charge of your own future. want some opportunities that could work no matter who is in the oval office? then stick around, because "mad money" is coming up next.

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